Everyday Murders in Mexico Decline Over a Third During President Sheinbaum, Per Official Data

The mean count of daily killings monthly in the country has decreased by thirty-seven percent since President Claudia Sheinbaum took office, per fresh government data. But, security experts have warned that homicide numbers could fail to indicate improved national security.

Notable Drop in Daily Averages

Officials reported an mean of close to 55 homicides a day in last November compared with almost 87 when the President began the leadership in the previous September. This information was delivered by the director of the country’s national public security system, Marcela Figueroa Franco, during the leader's daily news conference on a recent Tuesday.

“The result in killings that have been recorded during these past months is very significant,” Claudia Sheinbaum stated, explaining that in November the lowest amount of murders were documented for any November in the past decade.

Historical Context and Official Strategy

Violent organized crime infighting, alongside the government’s highly militarised operations to confront the trafficking organizations, have made Mexico’s murder numbers soar in recent times. The figure peaked at a maximum of 36,773 homicides in 2020, according to the nation's official data office.

That meant Mexico a murder rate more than 4x higher than that of the United States. From that point, murders have been on the decline, falling to 33,550 in the last calendar year. Claudia Sheinbaum has linked her public safety approach for an seemingly more pronounced drop in homicides in the current year.

At a news briefing in August, the Mexican leader said: “There is a plan, we have monitoring of the plan, and there is detailed tracking town by town in some cases. The plan is effective. And we have to keep working at it each day.”

The main components of the President's security plan include:

• Strengthening Mexico’s federal guard.
• Improving information gathering and investigation efforts.
• Greater cooperation between government agencies.

Analyst Warnings and Data Concerns

However, public safety analysts cautioned that focusing solely on murder data to assess the situation of pacification was flawed. This is particularly true considering the rise in different criminal activities such as abductions.

“That would be positive news if this were a decrease, but I think we must not just look at the murder data and conclude: ‘Alright, excellent,’” said Cecilia Farfán-Méndez, an specialist on Mexico's criminal organizations. “I would be cautiously optimistic.”

Per the policy analysis thinktank Mexico Evalúa, murders in total declined by more than 20% in the initial 10 months of the current year versus the identical timeframe last year. Yet, missing persons cases have gone up by 15% and in some states have risen by up to 200%.

“Numbers on homicides is not valid for assessing the reality of public insecurity,” said Armando Vargas, a security analyst at Mexico Evalúa. “First, we have police and investigators who do not have the capacity or the will to correctly identify and classify bodies. Second, organised [criminals] … have the means to conceal violence through abductions.”

Vargas pointed out that relying on monthly averages of daily killings was additionally concerning because it may mask days when there were especially high levels of murders.

“Using the per-day mean renders surges of violent crime unseen,” he said.

Arrests and Confiscations as Metrics of Success

Where the government can highlight the success of its security strategy is on detentions and confiscations. Nearly 40,000 people were detained between last October and November 2025 for serious crimes, per government data. Over 20,000 firearms were seized and 311 tonnes of narcotics seized.

“Donald Trump cannot claim President Sheinbaum of not acting, because the reality is she is accomplishing a lot with these many thousands of arrests, many thousands of confiscations, and all the operational weakening of criminal groups. It’s very in political terms advantageous,” stated Vargas.

Persistent Unrest and Societal Frustration

But in spite of these measures, Mexico is still beset by extreme bloodshed, with several regions in the throes of cartel-fueled conflict. Recently there was a high-profile assassination of a well-liked local official in the state of Michoacan, among 10 mayors murdered in the past year.

Weeks after, thousands of youth took to the streets in Mexico City and throughout the nation to voice their anger at corruption and drug violence.

“The administration shares [data] in a manner to create a narrative of security. Politically it’s highly successful, from a social perspective it’s very questionable,” the analyst concluded.